Pakistan batsmen vs England bowlers - 2012 ODIs

In Part 1: we used numbers to calculate the probabilities of English batsmen being dismissed by various Pakistani bowlers and their modes of dismissals.

Now we use the same methodology to do a Pak Batsmen v Eng Bowlers analysis.

(NOTE: England doesn’t have a Left arm Fast bowler (LF) in their ODI squad and hence there is no column for a LF in these tables)

Table 1: % Chance of Pak Batsman being dismissed by different type of Eng Bowlers
Pak Batsmen	RF (Broad, Bresnan, Finn, Anderson, Dernbach)	RS (Swann)	LS (Patel, Briggs)	RunOut
Hafeez	64.71	15.69	7.84	7.84
Farhat	51.61	19.35	12.9	6.45
Younis	45.93	14.07	16.30	9.63
Shafiq	30	0	30	20
Misbah	38.30	17.02	21.28	4.26
Malik	37.96	19.44	17.59	12.04
U.Akmal	40.00	30.00	25.00	5
Afridi	53.89	12.57	10.18	4.19

Table 2: % Chance of getting Bowled, Caught, Stumped, LBW or Runout
Pak Batsmen	Bowled	C.Other	C.Wk	Stumped	LBW	RunOut	HitWkt
Hafeez	11.49	55.17	20.69	1.15	5.75	5.75	0
Farhat	8.89	51.11	17.78	2.22	13.33	6.67	0
Younis	14.29	44.33	20.2	1.48	10.34	9.36	0
Shafiq	18.18	31.82	9.09	9.09	13.64	18.18	0
Misbah	15.25	45.76	20.34	0	13.56	3.39	1.69
Malik	12.74	45.86	15.29	5.1	7.64	12.74	0.64
U.Akmal	27.5	30	27.5	2.5	7.5	5	0
Afridi	14.09	58.42	13.75	2.41	5.84	5.5	0

Digging deeper into these numbers and combining the above two tables together to find out the chances of each Pakistan batsmen getting bowled or LBW or Stumped by different English bowlers would help us devise strategies to dismiss the Pakistan batsmen

Table 3: % Chance of Pak Batsman being BOWLED by different type of Eng Bowlers
Pak Batsmen	RF (Broad, Bresnan, Finn, Anderson, Dernbach)	RS (Swann)	LS (Patel, Briggs)
Hafeez	8.05	3.45	0.00
Farhat	4.44	2.22	2.22
Younis	7.88	2.96	1.97
Shafiq	0.00	4.55	13.64
Misbah	5.08	3.39	3.39
Malik	7.64	1.91	1.91
U.Akmal	17.50	5.00	5.00
Afridi	9.62	1.03	0.69

Table 4: % Chance of Pak Batsman being CAUGHT(Fielder) by different type of Eng Bowlers
Pak Batsmen	RF (Broad, Bresnan, Finn, Anderson, Dernbach)	RS (Swann)	LS (Patel, Briggs)
Hafeez	37.93	12.64	2.30
Farhat	31.11	11.11	6.67
Younis	7.88	6.90	8.87
Shafiq	18.18	4.55	0.00
Misbah	20.34	8.47	8.47
Malik	22.93	8.92	8.28
U.Akmal	20.00	5.00	5.00
Afridi	35.05	6.87	7.90

Table 5: % Chance of Pak Batsman being CAUGHT(WK) by different type of Eng Bowlers
Pak Batsmen	RF (Broad, Bresnan, Finn, Anderson, Dernbach)	RS (Swann)	LS (Patel, Briggs)
Hafeez	18.39	1.15	0.00
Farhat	13.33	0.00	0.00
Younis	16.26	0.49	0.99
Shafiq	9.09	0.00	0.00
Misbah	15.25	1.69	0.00
Malik	10.83	1.27	0.64
U.Akmal	20.00	0.00	2.50
Afridi	11.34	0.69	0.00

Table 6: % Chance of Pak Batsman being LBW by different type of Eng Bowlers
Pak Batsmen	RF (Broad, Bresnan, Finn, Anderson, Dernbach)	RS (Swann)	LS (Patel, Briggs)
Hafeez	4.60	0.00	1.15
Farhat	8.89	0.00	2.22
Younis	5.42	2.46	0.99
Shafiq	13.64	0.00	0.00
Misbah	5.08	1.69	6.78
Malik	3.18	1.91	0.64
U.Akmal	0.00	5.00	2.50
Afridi	4.12	1.03	0.69

Table 7: % Chance of Pak Batsman being STUMPED by different type of Eng Bowlers
Pak Batsmen	RF (Broad, Bresnan, Finn, Anderson, Dernbach)	RS (Swann)	LS (Patel, Briggs)
Hafeez	0	0.00	1.15
Farhat	0	2.22	0.00
Younis	0	0.49	0.99
Shafiq	0	0.00	9.09
Misbah	0	0.00	0.00
Malik	0	1.27	3.82
U.Akmal	0	0.00	2.50
Afridi	0	1.72	0.69

STRATEGIES: 

1 – Hafeez & Farhat: Statistically it seems like both the openers will be dismissed early by one of the faster English bowlers since Hafeez has been dismissed by a right arm fast bowler (RF) more than 64% of the times. And Farhat: more than 51% of the times. Both the openers love to attack and play their shots. Timing can be their biggest enemy because they get out mostly caught by fielders in slips, gully and point. English pacers should mix up their pace well to make the openers mistime their shots.

3 – Younis: is a slow starter and has been dismissed in the early part of his innings more than often. If he comes in to bat early then a fast bowler is more likely to get his wicket. Besides getting caught by a fielder, Younis has a 20% chance of getting caught behind. Hence the English bowlers can bowl just outside the off stump line to induce an edge.

4 – Shafiq: If Shafiq survives the English pace attack, then he’d have to work hard against England’s left arm spinners (LS) who also have a 30% chance of dismissing him. Shafiq has been out bowled and runout more than 18% of the times.

5 – Misbah: Even though during his ODI career, Misbah has been a victim of caught behind and bowled more than LBW, the skipper was out LBW 5 times during the Test series and England would look to do the same in the ODIs. Bowl full and straight to Misbah and trap him LBW.

6 – Malik: has been included in the team on Misbah’s request despite fans and critics questioning this move. England would look to further demoralize Malik who is already riding on low confidence by bouncing him out.

7 – U.Akmal: has a 40% chance of getting out to a RF and a 30% chance of getting out to a RS. He is undoubtedly the most attacking batsman in the Pakistan line up who would play his shots despite any crisis. England would look to contain him and deny him any runs which would frustrate the batsman into playing a rash stroke.

8 – Afridi: It is very hard to devise a strategy against the king of entertainment, Afridi. More than often it is not the opposition bowler who dismisses Afridi; it is Afridi himself who dismisses Afridi. England would not want spinners to be bowling at Afridi for sure. With 53.89% chance of being out to a RF, Strauss would surely bring in Broad or Bresnan when Afridi arrives.

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